Quick question for the bigger breeders out there.

I have an Enchi, Pastel, YB male that I have paired 2 years in a row now for a total of 12 eggs. Here is my question; What are the odds that all offspring from both clutches contain the pastel gene? 1st pairing was to a 100% het Albino female, 2nd pairing was to a single gene YB. I didn’t hit the Ivory this season. This season I ended up with only 4 viable eggs but the out come was 1.2 Enchi, Pastel, YB and 1.0 Pastel, YB.

I know the Calculator Odds, I just wanna know if I have an extremely strong Pastel gene in this male.

I am pairing the same male to 2 normal females and the YB female this season as I am very curious.

1 Like

Can you provide a picture of him, do you have pairing info on him? He is likely a super pastel.

1 Like

He’s either a super pastel or knows the odds gods on a personal level

3 Likes

It could be super pastel but the more you breed the more weird odds you get. I have a Pastel Enchi GHI male that isn’t a super that hits on all Enchi clutches fairly often. 12 eggs isn’t enough on it’s own to say super to me. Post us a picture when you can.

3 Likes

Assuming you have a heterozygous pastel and not a homozygous pastel, aka not a super pastel, the odds are the same as flipping a coin and landing on heads 12 times in a row.

1/4096 = 0.000244 = 0.0244%

Unlikely but possible!

I produced 9 ball pythons from a Pastel Dreamsicle male last season and only 2 carried the pastel gene. Statistical probabilities don’t always work out the way we predict but as the numbers of “tries” increases it will shift towards what’s expected (law of large numbers).

1 Like

I would actually say it’s 3/4096 since it could’ve happened with any of the morphs. Which is 0.0732%. Statistically it’s possible but extremely unlikely.

I’m no math wiz but I’m skeptical that math is correct. Each mutation represents an independent variable and we’re just analyzing the likelihood of landing on one (pastel) in this scenario. I just searched “what is the likelihood of landing on heads 12 times in a row”

3 Likes

I’m not totally positive but because it could’ve happened with enchi or yellowbelly too I think it would increase the chance of it happening. Having a morph passed on to an entire clutch is more likely with 5 dominant genes in play (5 times it could occur and it only needs to occur once) than just 1 dominant gene in the pairing.

The probability of each mutation is unaffected by other mutations. They each have a 50/50 chance, aka a coin flip.

I think the correct analogy when factoring in 3 mutations together would be to use a dice with enough sides to represent all potential combinations of those 3 mutations. Because of the increased number of sides to land on the odds of landing on the same one 12 times in a row would be significantly lower.

But again, each mutation has a 50% statistical probability of passing on and they are completely independent of one another.

2 Likes

But if you flip a coin 3 times your probability of getting heads changes from 50% to 87.5%.

If we were trying to determine “with 3 mutations involved what are chances of a single egg getting at least one mutation” that would be correct (I think). The odds of producing a normal with 3 inc. dominant mutations in the mix is low.

But what the OP was trying to determine is what are the chances of a single mutation passing to 12 separate eggs consecutively with 100% success. 1/4096 applies to that scenario.

Also, just wanted to address this:

There is no variability in how strong a mutation will behave. If it is heterozygous the statistical probability is 50% of the offspring will carry it. If it is homozygous 100% of the offspring will carry it. Statistical probabilities are simply what is likely to happen. Like with the coin flip analogy, flip it 10 times and you are likely to hit on 5 heads and 5 tails, but you may hit on 6 heads and 4 tails (less probable than 5/5), you may even hit on 10 heads and 0 tails (least probable but possible). If you flip it 100,000 times the outcome will be much closer to 50/50 due to the law of large numbers. When we’re dealing with just a handful of eggs statistical outliers have a higher potential of occurring.

4 Likes

I’d lead more towards a super pastel with those odds, but I’d love to see a photo of him.

Sorry I’ve been busy with kids and work, I will post an updated pic of him this afternoon. IMO, He does not show any of the Super Pastel traits and that is why am asking all of you. I will also post a post shed pic of the hatchlings from this last clutch.

2 Likes